Analysis on the operation situation of building ma

2022-07-25
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Analysis on the operation situation of the building materials industry since 2016

in the first half of this year, the economic operation of the building materials industry was as stable as that of the national industry. At the same time, the structural contradictions on the supply side of building materials had not been fundamentally solved, and the economic operation of building materials was still facing great downward pressure. After May, the national investment growth rate fell again, the growth rate of building materials production fell again, the prices of building materials products remained low, and the economic benefits of the building materials industry rebounded weakly

I. overview of the economic operation of the building materials industry in the first half of the year

since the second half of last year, the state has intensively issued a series of positive macro-control policies. In the first quarter of this year, the growth rate of China's fixed asset investment rebounded. The growth rate of the building materials industry ended the continuous downward slide since August last year, the production growth rate and product prices stopped falling and stabilized, and the economic benefits of the industry reversed the continuous negative growth to positive growth in the second quarter

1. production turned to medium and low speed growth

at the end of the first quarter of this year, the building materials industry reversed the continuous decline in production growth. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the added value of the building materials industry above designated size increased by 7.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, 7.6% year-on-year in the first half of the year, and the growth rate of building materials in the first half of the year rose by 0.2 percentage points compared with the first quarter. From January to July, the added value of building materials industry above designated size increased by 7.4% year-on-year, 1.4 percentage points higher than that of industries above Designated Size in the same period

in March this year, the national cement and flat glass output ended the continuous negative growth since the beginning of last year. In the first quarter, the national cement output increased by 3.5% year-on-year and the flat glass increased by 0.5%. In the first half of this year, the national cement output reached 1.109 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.25%; From January to July, the output was 1.32 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. In the first half of the year, the national flat glass output was 380million weight boxes, an increase of 1% year-on-year. After May, the national flat glass production and sales continued to rise slowly and steadily. In July, the national flat glass production was 63.77 million weight boxes, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%. From January to July, the national flat glass output reached 450million weight boxes, an increase of 2.2% year on year

after the second quarter, the output of main building materials products such as commercial concrete, brick, tile and gypsum board also got rid of the declining situation and turned to medium and low speed growth

2. the low price tends to be stable

therefore, the project was won. At the beginning of this year, the ex factory prices of major building materials products fell again by a large margin. By the end of February, the ex factory prices of building materials and non minerals had fallen by 4.2% year on year. After March, the ex factory prices of building materials and non mineral products stopped falling and slowly rebounded month on month. The average ex factory prices of building materials products in the first half of the year and from January to July decreased by 3.5% compared with the same period of the previous year, and the decline was 0.7% narrower than that from January to February

the national average monthly ex factory price of cement fell to 248.6 yuan per ton in February, slowly rebounded after March, recovered to more than 260 yuan per ton in May, and rebounded by 14 yuan per ton in June compared with the lowest price in February. After March this year, the price of flat glass nationwide has stabilized and rebounded. In June, the factory price of building glass nationwide rose by 2 yuan per weight box compared with that in February

3. profit growth changed from negative to positive

from March last year to April this year, the profits of above designated building materials continued to grow negatively, and in May, it changed from decline to growth. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the main business income of building materials above Designated Size in the first half of this year was 2.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%; The total profit was 137.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%. From January to July, the main business income of the building materials industry above designated size is expected to be 2.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%; The total profit is expected to be 162billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%

since March last year, the above designated cement and flat glass manufacturing industry has achieved a sustained negative growth in profits. In the first four months of this year, the cement industry suffered losses and turned to profit in May. In the first half of this year, the cement manufacturing industry realized a profit of 9.55 billion yuan. In the first two months of this year, the whole flat glass industry suffered losses, and turned to profit after March. In the first half of this year, the flat glass manufacturing industry realized a profit of 2.99 billion yuan

II. At present, the economic operation of the building materials industry is still facing great downward pressure

the current building materials industry is the same as the national industry. Although there has been a good trend, it can not be said that there has been an inflection point so far. The structural contradictions on the supply side of building materials have not been fundamentally resolved, and the economic operation of building materials is still facing great downward pressure. In May, the growth rate of national investment fell again, the growth rate of the output of major building materials products slowed down significantly, the prices of building materials products fell again, and the economic benefits of the building materials industry continued to slump

1.after may, the growth rate of building materials production fell again.

after may, the growth rate of national fixed asset investment fell again. From January to may, the national fixed asset investment increased by 9.6% year-on-year, the lowest growth rate in 16 years since December 2000. From January to June, the year-on-year growth rate of national fixed asset investment fell to 9%, and from January to July, it continued to fall to 8.1%. Since May, the growth rate of building materials production has slowed down significantly. In March and April, the year-on-year growth rate of the added value of building materials above designated size was more than 9%. In May, the growth rate fell to 8.1%, in June, it fell sharply to 6.4%, and in July, it continued to fall to 5.8%. In the first half of the year, the year-on-year growth rate of building materials above Designated Size dropped by 0.3 percentage points compared with that from January to may, and the drop range from January to July expanded to 0.5 percentage points

the growth rate of national investment dropped again, making the growth rate of building materials investment driven products fall again and fall into a low growth channel. In the first half of this year, the year-on-year growth rate of China's cement output dropped by 0.3% compared with the first quarter, and from January to July, it dropped by 0.5% compared with the first half of this year. In the three months of the second quarter of this year, the year-on-year growth rate of the national cement output in the current month was below 3%, and the year-on-year growth rate in July was only 0.9%. Affected by the rainy season and typhoon in the Yangtze River Basin and southeast coastal areas, the national cement production in July is lower than that in June every year, but the impact is greater this year. Since June this year, the cement market demand in North China, Northeast China and Northwest China has also decreased

in June, the brick output of national industrial enterprises above Designated Size showed negative growth again year on year, and in July, the national waterproof coiled material output fell year on year. After May, the output growth rate of building materials products such as commercial concrete, building stone plate, glass fiber yarn and fiber reinforced plastic fell back compared with that in May

2. the export of building materials continued to decline

since this year, the export of building materials and non minerals has continued to decline. In the first half of the year, the export was US $16.08 billion, a decrease of 10.5% compared with the same modulus ≥ 4000mpa

in June, the export of building materials dropped again. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday in February this year, the export of building materials in that month fell by 38.5% year-on-year, and 26.1% year-on-year in the first two months. After March, the decline of building materials exports gradually narrowed to 4.8% from January to May. In June, the export of building materials fell by 30.2% year-on-year, and the year-on-year decline from January to June was 5.7 percentage points higher than that from January to May. In the first half of the year, the number of exports of building and sanitary ceramics and building stone, accounting for nearly half of the exports of building materials, decreased by 5.4% and 8.4% respectively year-on-year

in the first half of the year, the output of ceramic tiles in China only increased by 1.7% year-on-year, of which the output of Guangdong, the main ceramic tile producing area and the main export destination, decreased by 5.3% year-on-year. In the first half of the year, the national output of sanitary ceramics decreased by 6.6% year-on-year, and the output of Guangdong and Hebei decreased by 24.6% and 3.6% year-on-year respectively. The decline in export volume is the main reason for the decline in domestic output

3. the price of building materials continued to be low, and the price of cement fell again. In July, the ex factory prices of building materials and non minerals stagnated. From March to June, the year-on-year decline in the ex factory prices of building materials and non minerals narrowed month by month. From January to July, the average ex factory prices of building materials products. 3. The year-on-year decline in the selection index of electronic tensile testing machine was the same as that in the first half of the year. The cement price dropped again. The average ex factory price of cement nationwide dropped by 8 yuan compared with June, and the average ex factory price from January to July dropped by 4.4% compared with the same period of the previous year; The ex factory price of flat glass rose, and the national average ex factory price of building glass rose to 57 yuan per weight box

4. the economic benefit continues to be depressed

the low price is still the fundamental reason for the weak recovery of building materials' benefit. Since May, the profit of building materials has achieved positive growth, which does not mean that the industry benefit has reversed the downward trend. In the first half of the year, the profit of building materials above Designated Size still decreased by 2.8% compared with the same period of the previous year; Turning losses into profits in the whole cement industry does not mean that the cement industry has gone out of trouble. The profit of cement manufacturing industry in the first half of the year still decreased by 26.6% year-on-year. There were more than 3000 cement production enterprises, with a loss of 40.4% and 1292 loss making enterprises, with a loss of 12.18 billion yuan, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year. The profit margin of cement sales was only 2.5%, down 0.8% from the low level of 3.2% in the same period last year

5. the investment in building materials decreased, which affected the industry to make up for its weaknesses and the transformation and upgrading.

the investment in fixed assets of building materials continued to decline. From January to July, the investment in fixed assets above the designated size in the building materials industry was 806billion yuan, a decrease of 3% over the same period last year, including a decrease of 4.2% in non-state-owned investment

the investment in building materials since last year, regardless of the decline or stagnation of investment in traditional industries, industry chain extension industries and emerging industries, will not only continue the L-shaped growth trend of building materials above the designated size this year to the first three years of the "13th five year plan" period, but also seriously affect the weaknesses and transformation and upgrading of building materials during the "13th five year plan" period

6. the credit line of cement and glass enterprises has been reduced.

since this year, the lack of funds has still plagued the normal production and operation of enterprises, merger and reorganization of enterprises, and technological transformation of energy conservation and environmental protection if the drive is not normal. According to the industry financial data analysis provided by the Bureau of statistics and the information department, the short-term loan amount of cement enterprises this year decreased by 32billion yuan, or 5%, compared with the same period last year, and that of glass enterprises decreased by 4billion yuan, or 4%

since last year, the investment in technical glass industry has declined, mainly due to capital constraints. China's Fuyao, CSG, Xinyi and other automotive glass production enterprise groups currently have a scale of only 10 billion yuan, while the investment in high-tech glass production lines is often billions or even billions. Without financial support, it is difficult for the glass industry to make up for weaknesses and realize transformation and upgrading

III. prediction of the economic operation situation of the building materials industry in the second half of the year

. At present, cement and concrete cement products account for 38% of the total sales of the building materials industry. With the addition of wall materials and other industries, more than 60% of the building materials industry is mainly driven by investment. The decline in the growth rate of national investment has restrained the recovery of the growth rate of the building materials industry

under the background of the continuous downturn of global economic growth, the international market demand faced by the building materials industry continues to weaken. At present, the driving effect of exports on the growth of the building materials industry has been greatly weakened. The export volume of building materials, such as building sanitary ceramics and building stones, has a negative pulling effect on domestic output

the consumption demand for building materials has shifted from high-speed growth to steady growth. After May, the year-on-year growth rate of retail sales of construction and decoration materials in China also fell. In the first half of the year, the national retail sales of construction and decoration materials increased by 15.6% year-on-year, 0.4% lower than that from January to may, 15.5% higher than that from January to July, and continued to decline by 0.1%,. At present, the national decoration market is still in the growth stage. However, affected by the real estate market, the blowout growth has entered the medium and low-speed steady growth in the past few years. Since the beginning of this year, the decline in the growth rate of the output of transport vehicles and air pollution control equipment also indicates that the consumption demand of the downstream industries of building materials has shifted to stable growth

building materials, cement and other major building materials in the third quarter of this year

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