Analysis on the most popular situation of power ba

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Brief analysis of the power battery situation: the end of the era of fighting alone

Abstract: Based on the late development of the market, this year's sales champion is likely to belong to the Ningde era. Obviously, at present, no company can independently afford the closed industrial chain of new energy vehicles

obviously, at present, no company can independently afford the closed industrial chain of new energy vehicles. This also indicates the end of the era of single fighting in the power battery industry, and holding together for warmth is the king

if we mention the major events in the lithium battery industry in May, at least two things are indispensable. First, BYD's automotive battery business will be split and operated independently. It plans to supply power batteries to all new energy automobile enterprises without discrimination; Secondly, Ningde times and SAIC jointly established times SAIC Power Battery Co., Ltd. and SAIC times power battery system Co., Ltd. to engage in the development, production and sales of power batteries and related systems

in the eyes of the outside world, BYD is "helpless" to make such a move. As an enterprise with the most complete industrial chain in the field of new energy vehicles in China, BYD has a complete industrial chain from upstream raw materials to midstream power batteries, to downstream new energy vehicles and even to terminal power battery recycling. Once, both power battery enterprises and new energy vehicle enterprises in China followed BYD's lead

however, with the rise of BAIC, Ningde times and other enterprises, this power battery enterprise, which ranked second in the world (after Panasonic) and first in China in terms of power battery production and sales in 2016, also felt a deep crisis. First of all, in the first quarter of this year, BAIC bjev's sales of new energy vehicles exceeded that of BYD, which was the previous top seller. Then its power battery shipments were significantly exceeded by Ningde times, and then lost the champion

what's worse is that while Ningde times calmly reaps China's power battery market, its private placement valuation has reached 84billion yuan. In contrast, BYD's market value is only 130billion yuan. If Ningde times is successfully listed, its market value can "kill" BYD every minute. From this point of view, the status of BYD power battery boss is already in jeopardy

the end of the era of fighting alone

before that, BYD's new energy buses were "popular all over the country". Due to its unique geographical advantages, it has almost won the purchase orders of government new energy buses in Shenzhen and surrounding areas. Even in the process of individual bidding, they won all the bids alone, and let other enterprises participating in the bidding become "foil"

however, with the shift of subsidies for new energy vehicles, the sales situation of new energy buses has not been optimistic since the second half of last year. At the beginning of 2017, the CRRC vehicle technical service center issued the "notice on adjusting the application of the catalogue of recommended models for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles", which clearly pointed out that the first to fifth batches of the catalogue issued in 2016 need to be re approved. More than 90% of new energy bus enterprises need to update their own models, and it is normal that there are no cars to sell

according to the data of the Ministry of industry and information technology, 648 pure electric buses were produced in the first quarter of 2017, a year-on-year decrease of 90%; In terms of sales volume, 2046 new energy passenger cars were sold in the first quarter of 2017. Compared with the same period last year, the production and sales volume decreased significantly. Although the sales of new energy passenger cars improved in April and may with the release of the new recommended model catalogue, it will take a long time to recover to the level in the first half of 2015

previously, BYD power batteries were mainly lithium iron phosphate batteries, which were mainly used in the field of passenger cars. The sales volume of new energy passenger cars has decreased sharply, the technical route of new energy passenger car batteries has changed, and it is reasonable for BYD to reduce its power battery shipments. Although BYD has also begun to gradually expand the use of ternary lithium batteries on some new models, it is a little late compared with the Ningde era, which always walks on "two legs"

due to the eye-catching market performance of new energy passenger vehicles equipped with ternary batteries, the shipment of Ningde times power batteries surpassed BYD for the first time in the first quarter of this year, reaching 3.28gwh, accounting for 26% of the market share; BYD's supply is only 2.17gwh, accounting for 17% of the market. In 2016, the shipments of BYD and Ningde times power batteries were 7.4 GWH and 6.7 GWH respectively

it seems that the reasons are closely related to BYD's highly closed industrial chain. BYD's power battery can only be used in its own new energy vehicles, while Ningde times has established stable cooperative relations with a number of domestic new energy vehicle enterprises, with obvious advantages and disadvantages. This also shows that the independent development of power battery manufacturing business advocated by Wang Chuanfu and the road of self production and self marketing are not the best choice

of course, it is not only BYD that hopes to come out of the closed supply chain. On May 27, the negotiation between Nissan and GSR capital, a Chinese private equity firm, on the sale of AESC, Nissan's vehicle battery subsidiary, has entered the final negotiation stage. It is reported that the two sides are expected to reach a formal M & a agreement in the next two weeks. The total capital contribution for the acquisition of GSR is expected to be 110billion yen. Among them, the Yangtze River industry fund supported by the Hubei provincial government will provide at least 20% of the funds for GSR

aesc is a joint venture company founded by Nissan Motor and NEC in 2007. Nissan Motor holds 51% of its shares, and NEC holds the remaining shares of the e-commerce platform. AESC's main business is to provide lithium-ion batteries for Nissan LEAF electric vehicles. The company's market share in the field of on-board batteries is second only to Panasonic, ranking second in the world. Similar to BYD, AESC's power batteries are mainly supplied to Nissan and not to other new energy vehicle enterprises

insiders believe that power battery is a technology intensive and capital intensive industry, and also an industry with strong scale effect. For traditional vehicle manufacturers, the challenge of investing in power battery business does not lie in the capital threshold and technical threshold. The biggest threshold is sales and cost reduction. The closed sales chain cannot sell products to other automobile manufacturers, so it cannot form scale effect and will lack competitiveness in cost

at a time when the two ends of the power battery are squeezed and the cost needs to be reduced urgently, the relevant car companies also hope to have more choices in the power battery. It is understood that at present, many new energy vehicle enterprises have more than one battery supplier, and some even more than five. Only when the power battery is freed from the closed supply chain, can it form a stronger scale effect, form a more favorable advantage in cost performance, and participate in the competition

therefore, both the decoupling of Nissan and AESC and the ongoing separation of BYD's power battery business have clearly told us that it is no longer a good choice for vehicle enterprises to develop power battery manufacturing business independently and in a closed manner. It can be said that the road of closing the industrial chain has come to an end in the power battery industry

group heating is the king way

compared with BYD's closed sales channels, Ningde times has always played a good role as a power battery supplier, and has entered the supply chain of famous automobile companies such as brilliance BMW, Geely, BAIC, GAC, etc. now even Hyundai Motor of Korea has chosen Ningde times as the first Chinese battery supplier. In order to further enhance its competitiveness, Ningde times has established two joint ventures with SAIC to complement the advantages of the main engine plant and go deep into the entire industrial chain

as the core of new energy vehicles, the power battery has long been a soft spot for the absolute hardness of vehicle enterprises that can only be used in the scientific community. However, the OEMs can make up for this defect at a small cost by designing their own battery pack and battery management system. After all, the adaptability of battery modules and systems determines the core competitiveness of vehicle enterprises and battery 4. Thin film pendulum impact testing machine technical parameter enterprises. Therefore, through the joint cooperation with SAIC, Ningde times is bound to greatly improve its battery adaptability and competitiveness

in terms of production capacity, Ningde times plans to raise another 30billion yuan by 2020, increasing the company's battery capacity by five times to 5billion watt hours, which will surpass Tesla Motors' super factory in Nevada. However, before that, it should first shorten the process and quality gap with its counterparts in Japan and South Korea as soon as possible, establish closer ties with upstream and downstream enterprises, and jointly deal with the challenges in the initial stage of the new energy vehicle market

as another example, on May 31, GuoXuan high tech announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary Hefei GuoXuan had signed the 2017 purchase agreement with Beijing new energy, and BAIC new energy planned to purchase 50000 sets of pure electric vehicle battery systems from Hefei GuoXuan, with a total contract amount of 1.875 billion. According to the agreement, Hefei GuoXuan will deliver all battery systems specified in the BAIC bjev contract in batches from May to December this year

a brief review: e150ev, which was launched by BAIC in 2014, purchased lithium iron phosphate batteries from Prader and Guangyu; Later, the ev200, a new model, was equipped with the aisikai ternary lithium battery, a joint venture between BAIC and SK group of South Korea; When eu260 was launched in 2015, it was equipped with Ningde times power battery. The "national car" ec180, which was launched at the beginning of this year, will become the pillar of BAIC new energy sales. This model is equipped with the ternary lithium battery of GuoXuan high tech

after several changes of ownership, the battery supplier of BAIC has finally come to GuoXuan high tech for no reason. As early as 2015, BAIC bjev and GuoXuan high tech reached a strategic cooperation relationship. Cooperation agreements have been reached on the establishment of overseas R & D platforms, joint venture construction of battery plants, cooperative operation of power exchange mode taxis, battery recycling, echelon utilization and other related projects. At the same time, GuoXuan high tech also took shares in BAIC new energy twice, which has deep roots

in the first quarter of this year, BAIC bjev sold 12700 pure electric vehicles, more than 4000 more than BYD, which ranked second. The sales volume of BAIC EC series, EU Series and ex series continues to grow, the sales volume of BAIC new energy vehicles is rising, and the demand for power batteries will also gradually increase. There is no doubt that BAIC bjev, which ranks first in the pure electric vehicle market, will become the largest growth pole of GuoXuan hi tech this year

it can be seen from the above examples that although the results of the in-depth cooperation between new energy vehicle enterprises and battery enterprises are unknown at present. However, as "brothers and sisters in difficulties" in the industry, when the new energy vehicle market is going smoothly, power battery enterprises can soar on the ride. When the new energy vehicle market is at a low ebb, power battery enterprises also encounter a purgatory like test. However, through in-depth cooperation between them, effective marketing channels can be ensured, and at least the pressure for survival will be much smaller

according to the analysis of insiders, BYD's separation of battery business, on the one hand, can reduce its own battery enterprise risk, which is very helpful to improve the utilization rate and comprehensive capacity of battery products in the future; On the other hand, BYD battery has strong competitiveness, which will exert great pressure on battery enterprises with weak strength in the current market, promote the change of power battery market pattern, and promote the rapid change and development of the industry

but "quality first, customer first" is our company's business policy. Although the battery business of BYD operates independently, BYD has absolute control,

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